Villegas alone in first at PGA National

Golf Betting Lines

03/06/2010 - Palm Beach Gardens, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Camilo Villegas posted a three-under 67 on Saturday to take sole possession of the lead after the third round of the Honda Classic.

Villegas finished 54 holes at 11-under 199 and is three strokes clear at PGA National.

Vijay Singh, 1999 champion, had a one-under 69 on Saturday and is tied for second place with Australian Nathan Green, who carded a three-under 67 in round three. The pair is knotted at eight-under 202.

George McNeill fired a four-under 66 and shares fourth with Matt Every, who managed a one-under 69 on Saturday. The duo finished at minus-six.

This has been a whirlwind week for the leader.

Villegas started the week in his native Colombia to host the Nationwide Tour event being staged there. He returned in time for Thursday's first round and grabbed a piece of the second-round lead after a Friday 66.

"It got me in a good mood. Even though it's been a long week, it was awesome," said Villegas of his early-week trip.

On Saturday, Villegas parred his first two holes, but kicked in a short birdie putt at the par-five third. He made it two in a row thanks to another short birdie putt at the fourth and three holes later, ran home a 30-footer for birdie.

Villegas was 11-under par and three shots ahead. He made a 21-footer for birdie at the ninth to move four clear, but struggled immediately after he made the turn.

Villegas couldn't get up and down from a bunker at the 10th, but got the stroke back after a 19-foot birdie putt at 11. He missed the green and an eight-foot par save at 12.

Green got to nine-under with a tap-in birdie at 15, then Villegas three-putted for bogey from almost 40 feet at the 14th. His lead was only a stroke, but Villegas played a tough hole brilliantly to extend his cushion.

At the 16th, Villegas hammered his drive down the fairway and hit a great approach to 10 feet. He sank the birdie putt to move two ahead, then when Green bogeyed the last, Villegas reclaimed his three-shot lead.

He parred the last two and took the 54-hole lead for the second time on tour. The other time Villegas was in front after three rounds was the 2008 BMW Championship. He went on to win that event and the Tour Championship for his only two victories on tour.

Most observers believe Villegas should have more trophies on the mantle, but he's philosophical about it.

"It's all about attitude," said Villegas, who was third at the WGC- Accenture Match Play Championship and the second-round co-leader last week in Phoenix. "Last year, even though I played 27 tournaments, I only missed three cuts and made the cut in every major. I felt I should have played a little better. I decided to look at the good side of it."

Anthony Kim shared the lead with Villegas after the second round, but bogeyed his last two holes in round three and shot a three-over 73. He is tied for sixth place with Michael Connell, who had a one-under 69 and joined Kim at five-under 205.

J.B. Holmes (66) and Graeme McDowell (71) are knotted in eighth place at minus-four.

NOTES: Sam Saunders, the grandson of Arnold Palmer, posted his third straight one-under 69 and is tied for 10th at three-under par...Nearby fires left PGA National a little cloudy, but play was never stopped.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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